May
18

Toward ‘Posterior’ Probabilities: Part IV

The context This is the fourth (& probably final) post in this series (see part 1, part 2, and part 3). I focus on a particular example from Biblical Studies and whether challenges to finding Pr(H|E) also limit our ability to find

May
09

Toward ‘Posterior’ Probabilities: Part III

The Context This is now the third post in this series (see part 1, part 2, and next part 4). Here the focus shifts to the issue of finding Pr(H|E) in Biblical Studies. When in Biblical Studies is Pr(H|E) easier or more reliably

May
09

Toward ‘Posterior’ Probabilities: Part II

The Context This is the second post of a series (previously part 1,  next comes part 3 and part 4) discussing our epistemological access to Pr(H|E) and whether Bayes theorem is always the most reliable way to find it. In the last

Mar
10

Toward ‘Posterior’ Probabilities: A Belated Response to Christoph Heilig Part I

The Context The impetus for this discussion came from  the ‘Bayes and the Bible’ research group. The point of the group was to discuss confirmation (how data support theories) and statistics in Biblical Studies. I was a bit of a gadfly there;